The sample store is a fixed file, so it has no sync clock; a connected store shows its last sync time here.Orderssample store — fixed data through 27 Dec 2025, no clock · unmeasuredProduct costsample store — fixed data through 27 Dec 2025, no clock · unmeasuredShopify Paymentssample store — fixed data through 27 Dec 2025, no clock · unmeasuredCarrier / 3PLsample store — fixed data through 27 Dec 2025, no clock · unmeasuredAd spend (Meta)sample store — fixed data through 31 Dec 2025, no clock · unmeasured
January 2026 · what-if, from 1 Jan
+$4,000 profit, prices up 10%
Before ads, same unitsYour assumption
Price change+10%from 1 Jan
Units sold0%Your assumption
Sales · what-if$45,400+$4,100Your assumption
January profit before ads
Current expectation$23,700
December repeated, history, not a forecast
With prices +10%$27,700▲ +$4,000 vs current
units 0%Your assumption
Price +10% from 1 JanUnits sold 0% Your assumptionRounded to $100: rests on an assumption
Prices up 10% lifts January from $23,700 to $27,700.See these figures as a table
Case
Profit before ads
Vs current
Current expectation
$23,700
With prices +10%
$27,700
▲ +$4,000
How far units can fall
Units 0% (yours)+$4,000vs current
Units -10%+$1,200vs current
Units -14.4%break-even
Units -20%−$1,500vs current
▼ costs profitadds profit ▲
Units are your assumption.
Units can fall 14.4% before the price rise stops adding profit.See these figures as a table
Units
Profit
Units 0% (yours)
+$4,000 vs current
Units -10%
+$1,200 vs current
Units -14.4%
break-even
Units -20%
−$1,500 vs current
Save this as your January planWhen January closes, its actual sits beside this plan
On sample data the plan is shown, not stored
✓ Calculated from your costs, units are your assumption, nothing changes in your store
Units sold: Your assumptionEffect and break-even: Calculated from your costsHow this is calculated
Every input, its source and grade, and the arithmetic as the calculator prints it. "Your assumption" is a SCENARIO input you set.
Input
Value
Grade
Net Sales, December 2025Tied to your Shopify orders: 271 orders
$41,304.04
Matches ShopifyReconciled: Matches Shopify. Added up and matched to the source, to the cent.
Current expectation, January 2026December repeated: across 13 monthly backtests no other method did clearly better; typically off by 19.2%
$41,300
Your assumptionScenario: Your assumption. A what-if built on a number you chose. It is not a measured result.
Profit rate before adsProfit before ads / Net Sales, December 2025
57.4%
CalculatedDerived: Calculated from your data. Worked out from your own orders, costs and fees, with the sum shown. Not a guess.
Costs that follow pricePayment fees / Net Sales, December 2025
3.1%
CalculatedDerived: Calculated from your data. Worked out from your own orders, costs and fees, with the sum shown. Not a guess.
Price change, from 1 Jan 2026You declared this
+10.0%
Your assumptionScenario: Your assumption. A what-if built on a number you chose. It is not a measured result.
Change in units soldYou declared this; ProfitRoot never fills it in
0.0%
Your assumptionScenario: Your assumption. A what-if built on a number you chose. It is not a measured result.
scenario revenue = reconciled net sales x (1 + sales change) x (1 + price change)
= net sales x (1 + 0.0%) x (1 + 10.0%)
scenario contribution = net sales x (1 + sales change) x (57.4% (baseline contribution rate)
+ price change x (1 - 3.1% payment fees)
- COGS rate change - (1 + price change) x return rate change)
= net sales x (1 + 0.0%) x (57.4% + 9.7% - 0.0% - 0.0%)
break-even: this price rise stops helping if units fall by more than 14.4%
assumptions applied:
Prices up 10% (+10.0%) -- you declared this
Units unchanged (+0.0%) -- you declared this
Result
On the page
Arithmetic
Profit before ads, with your changeagainst the current expectation for January
+$4,000
+$4,002.48
Units up 10% instead, profit before adsthe same 10% as volume, at 57.4%
+$2,400
+$2,370.24
Sales, with your changeagainst $41,304.00
$45,400
$45,434.40
Break-even change in unitswhere the change stops paying
-14.4%
-14.45%
What-if figures are shown to the nearest $100 (the SCENARIO precision); the arithmetic column is here so you can check it by hand. No range or likelihood is shown: those need a track record of saved plans scored against actuals, which a new plan doesn't have yet.
Read the full explanation
What are you considering?
Pick one change. ProfitRoot works out what it does to sales and profit; it doesn't change anything in your store.
Raising prices 10% from 1 January would add about $4,000 a month in profit before ads, if you sell as many units as now.
Units could fall by 14.4% before this price change stops adding profit.
January 2026, the first month after your data ends (December 2025). Compared with your current expectation for January: December repeated, which over 13 past months missed by 19.2% on average. Profit here means sales less product, shipping and payment costs; ads, overhead and tax are not taken off.
Your change
The numbers you set, and the one ProfitRoot can't know for you.
%
On every product, every order.
Takes effect
1 Jan 2026. The month tested is January 2026.
%
How many more or fewer units you expect to sell. ProfitRoot doesn't guess how customers react; try a few values.
A discount is tested as a price cut on every order; one on some products or some days can't be tested yet. The calculator has no free-shipping threshold input yet. Also available: sales up or down, returns up or down. Not available yet: ad spend, and delaying inventory (needs an inventory source).
January 2026
Current expectation
With your change
Expected effect
Price
Today's prices
+10% from 1 Jan
–
Units soldYour assumption
As December
Unchanged (0%)
–
Sales
$41,300
$45,400
+$4,100
Profit before ads After product, shipping and payment costs
$23,700
$27,700
+$4,000
What-if figures are rounded to the nearest $100 because they rest on an assumption. Ad spend doesn't move with this change, so the +$4,000 also reaches what remains after ads.
How far units can fall
Added profit in January at each change in units sold, with this price change.
▼ Costs profit
Adds profit ▲
Break-even: units -14.4%
Units -20%-$1,500vs currentUnits -10%+$1,200vs currentYours: 0%+$4,000vs current
Break-even is about 39 of December's 271 orders. Units, not orders, are what the calculator moves; orders are shown for scale.
Why price is worth more than volume
The same 10%, applied two ways to January.
Prices up 10%+$4,000
Keeps about 97 cents of each extra sales dollar. Each order costs the same to make and ship; only payment fees (3.1% of sales) rise with price.
Units up 10%+$2,400
Keeps about 57 cents of each extra sales dollar. Every extra order brings its own product, shipping and fee costs.
Both are Calculated from your December costs; the units change is a what-if, not a measured response.
Next step
Nothing changes in your store until you change it in Shopify.
Save this as your January plan. Saving keeps the change, your units assumption, the data it was built on (through December 2025) and the calculator version together, unchanged. When January closes, ProfitRoot puts January's actual beside this plan. On sample data the plan is shown, not stored.
▶More detail (3)
▸Looking back, a separate analysis: December 2025 with prices 10% higherRestates a closed month; not what happenedHistory, not a forecast
December 2025's Net Sales of $41,304.04 would have read about $45,400, with +$4,000 profit before ads, at the same units.
▸If one thing moved 10%: every lever, side by sidePrice, units, product costs, ad spend, returns
If one thing moved 10%
December 2025
Prices move your margin most: 10% either way is $4,002 of profit before ads a month.
Profit before ads $23,702Left after recorded costs (Meta ad spend) $18,992CalculatedDerived: Calculated from your data. Worked out from your own orders, costs and fees, with the sum shown. Not a guess.
What moves
10% lower vs Dec
Change in profit before ads
10% higher vs Dec
1
Prices
-$4,002
+$4,002
2
Orders
-$2,370
+$2,370
3
Product costs
+$1,514
-$1,514
4
Ad spend
+$471
-$471
5
Returns
+$184
-$184
How this is computed (sensitivity)Each row moves one thing by 10% of its own December 2025 value and holds everything else at that month's actuals; the figure is the change in profit before ads. No band is drawn: this is arithmetic on one month, not a prediction.
scenario revenue = reconciled net sales x (1 + sales change) x (1 + price change)
= net sales x (1 + 0.0%) x (1 + 10.0%)
scenario contribution = net sales x (1 + sales change) x (57.4% (baseline contribution rate)
+ price change x (1 - 3.1% payment fees)
- COGS rate change - (1 + price change) x return rate change)
= net sales x (1 + 0.0%) x (57.4% + 9.7% - 0.0% - 0.0%)
break-even: this price rise stops helping if units fall by more than 14.4%
assumptions applied:
If prices were 10% higher (+10.0%) -- you declared this
▸Sales by month, November 2024 to December 2025The months behind the current expectation, and the full workbench
You have no committed plan, so there is nothing to test a decision against. Your current expectation for next month has been off by about 19% on average.
Next month's baseline is about $41,300: December carried forward, because across 13 monthly backtests no other method beat that by more than its own error. Commit a plan and this page starts answering the question it asks.
CalculatedDerived: Calculated from your data. Worked out from your own orders, costs and fees, with the sum shown. Not a guess.baseline about $41,300No plan committed
Sample store · actuals through 2025-12 · Baseline v1 · Scenario: none
14 reconciled months
How Revenue was calculated
Profit before ads, whole plan
$212,214
worked out from sales that match Shopify
CalculatedDerived: Calculated from your data. Worked out from your own orders, costs and fees, with the sum shown. Not a guess.
Ending cash
—
Needs every cash line.Appears once every cash line has a figure.
Missing informationGated: Missing information. We cannot work this out yet because a source is missing. We name the source.
Inventory risk
—
Needs an inventory source.
Missing informationGated: Missing information. We cannot work this out yet because a source is missing. We name the source.Not built yet: stock levels are not read.
Test a decision
What if I change ad spend?Needs an ad spend model
What if I delay inventory?Needs an inventory source
Outlook
Nov 2024 to Dec 2025, by month
Net Sales by month, so you can see the trend going into next month.
BaselineCurrent expectation, next month (hatched)BU (a committed plan) is outlined; none is committed on this store.
Jan 2026 current expectation $41,304CalculatedDerived: Calculated from your data. Worked out from your own orders, costs and fees, with the sum shown. Not a guess.
Drawn hatched and apart from the actual line: it is not a reconciled month. Its method and its backtested error are stated on the tile beside this chart.
Nov 2024 baseline $33,574Matches ShopifyReconciled: Matches Shopify. Added up and matched to the source, to the cent.
The rows are the month's reconciled orders on Connections.
Dec 2024 baseline $39,980 +$6,406 vs Nov 2024Matches ShopifyReconciled: Matches Shopify. Added up and matched to the source, to the cent.
The rows are the month's reconciled orders on Connections.
Jan 2025 baseline $18,771 -$21,209 vs Dec 2024Matches ShopifyReconciled: Matches Shopify. Added up and matched to the source, to the cent.
The rows are the month's reconciled orders on Connections.
Feb 2025 baseline $19,540 +$770 vs Jan 2025Matches ShopifyReconciled: Matches Shopify. Added up and matched to the source, to the cent.
The rows are the month's reconciled orders on Connections.
Mar 2025 baseline $24,716 +$5,175 vs Feb 2025Matches ShopifyReconciled: Matches Shopify. Added up and matched to the source, to the cent.
The rows are the month's reconciled orders on Connections.
Apr 2025 baseline $22,530 -$2,186 vs Mar 2025Matches ShopifyReconciled: Matches Shopify. Added up and matched to the source, to the cent.
The rows are the month's reconciled orders on Connections.
May 2025 baseline $23,068 +$538 vs Apr 2025Matches ShopifyReconciled: Matches Shopify. Added up and matched to the source, to the cent.
The rows are the month's reconciled orders on Connections.
Jun 2025 baseline $21,238 -$1,830 vs May 2025Matches ShopifyReconciled: Matches Shopify. Added up and matched to the source, to the cent.
The rows are the month's reconciled orders on Connections.
Jul 2025 baseline $20,348 -$890 vs Jun 2025Matches ShopifyReconciled: Matches Shopify. Added up and matched to the source, to the cent.
The rows are the month's reconciled orders on Connections.
Aug 2025 baseline $22,581 +$2,233 vs Jul 2025Matches ShopifyReconciled: Matches Shopify. Added up and matched to the source, to the cent.
The rows are the month's reconciled orders on Connections.
Sep 2025 baseline $21,862 -$720 vs Aug 2025Matches ShopifyReconciled: Matches Shopify. Added up and matched to the source, to the cent.
The rows are the month's reconciled orders on Connections.
Oct 2025 baseline $25,715 +$3,853 vs Sep 2025Matches ShopifyReconciled: Matches Shopify. Added up and matched to the source, to the cent.
The rows are the month's reconciled orders on Connections.
Nov 2025 baseline $34,579 +$8,865 vs Oct 2025Matches ShopifyReconciled: Matches Shopify. Added up and matched to the source, to the cent.
The rows are the month's reconciled orders on Connections.
Dec 2025 baseline $41,304 +$6,725 vs Nov 2025Matches ShopifyReconciled: Matches Shopify. Added up and matched to the source, to the cent.
The rows are the month's reconciled orders on Connections.
See these figures as a table
The chart's scale marks: $18k, $24k, $31k, $37k, $44k.
Month
On the chart
Baseline
Nov 2024
24-11
$33,574
Dec 2024
24-12
$39,980
Jan 2025
25-01
$18,771
Feb 2025
25-02
$19,540
Mar 2025
25-03
$24,716
Apr 2025
25-04
$22,530
May 2025
25-05
$23,068
Jun 2025
25-06
$21,238
Jul 2025
25-07
$20,348
Aug 2025
25-08
$22,581
Sep 2025
25-09
$21,862
Oct 2025
25-10
$25,715
Nov 2025
25-11
$34,579
Dec 2025
25-12
$41,304
Jan 2026, expected
26-01
$41,304
Current expectation, January 2026
$41,304CalculatedDerived: Calculated from your data. Worked out from your own orders, costs and fees, with the sum shown. Not a guess.
This is last month repeated: typically off by 19.2% across the 13 months it was tested on, and no other method did clearly better.
How the current expectation was tested
January 2026 Net Sales, current expectation $41,304: next = the last complete month. Chosen: the naive baseline (Last month) over 13 origins; no challenger beat it by more than its own MAPE (2024-11 to 2025-12). Every candidate below was run against the store's own months, origin by origin, and scored where the answer was already known; nothing here is a probability.
Method
MAPE
Origins
Last month (naive baseline)
19.2%
13
3-mo mean
–
–
6-mo mean
–
–
Year ago
–
–
MAPE is the mean absolute percentage error over the backtest origins; a method needs six origins before it is scored. Whole dollars at the derived grade: arithmetic on reconciled months, not a reconciled figure.
No driver is applied yet: the plan is the baseline, unmoved.
This is a sample store, so there is nothing to commit against. You can still read every figure a commit would freeze, and the version it would create.
On this sample store the commit is rendered only: you see exactly what would freeze, and no plan is written to the Ledger.
Commit this scenario
Committing records a proposal in the Ledger of a connected store; this workspace has none.
Comparison
Measure
Baseline
Draft scenario
Revenue
$369,805.02
Profit before ads, whole plan
$212,214
–
Ending cash
Needs every cash line.Appears once every cash line has a figure.Missing informationGated: Missing information. We cannot work this out yet because a source is missing. We name the source.
Stockouts
Needs an inventory source.Missing informationGated: Missing information. We cannot work this out yet because a source is missing. We name the source.Not built yet: stock levels are not read.
Which lever moves it most
Net Sales at the plan's horizon, 2026-01: $41,300Your assumptionScenario: Your assumption. A what-if built on a number you chose. It is not a measured result.from $41,300 as of 1 Dec 2025
No lever is applied, so nothing is ranked: the quantity is the baseline, unmoved.
2 lever(s) no source feeds: What if I change ad spend?; What if I delay inventory? — no source feeds them: What if I change ad spend? needs an ad spend model; What if I delay inventory? needs an inventory source. A withheld lever carries no dollar.
No plan is committed
Apply a driver above and a version appears here with everything it would freeze: the assumptions as typed, the periods, the data as-of and the engine version.