A 13-week cash forecast built from your Shopify payouts
A 13-week cash forecast for a Shopify store starts from the cash you hold today, adds the payouts you expect each week from your payout history, and takes off each bill in the week it leaves. The lowest week in the 13 is the one to plan for, because a profitable quarter can still run out of cash in the middle.
Why profit and cash part ways
Our reasoning: profit is counted when you sell, cash moves when money lands and leaves. Payouts arrive after the sale and net of fees, refunds and disputes; inventory is paid for weeks before it sells, often in one large order. A store can show a profit every month and still have a week with too little in the bank. Why a payout never equals a sales figure is on your payout doesn't match your sales.
Receipts: from payout history, not sales
Export your payout transactions from Finance, then Payouts, for the last 8 to 13 weeks and total them by the week each payout reached your bank. Our reasoning: the recent weekly average, adjusted for any season you know is coming, is the receipts line. It already has processing fees, refunds and disputes taken out, which a sales forecast would have to estimate. Where each fee sits is on where to find your Shopify fees.
Sources: Shopify Help Center: Viewing and exporting payout details · Shopify Help Center: Shopify Payments activity report (read 29 Oct 2026)
Outflows: by the week they leave
- Weekly and monthly bills: payroll, rent, the Shopify bill, apps, ad platforms, each in the week it is charged.
- Large one-off payments: inventory purchase orders, deposits, tax payments, on their due date, not spread out.
- Loan and card repayments: on their schedule.
Find the trough week (SAMPLE NUMBERS)
| Week | Opening | Payouts | Outflows | One-off | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $62,000 | $38,000 | -$21,500 | $78,500 | |
| 2 | $78,500 | $38,000 | -$21,500 | $95,000 | |
| 3 | $95,000 | $38,000 | -$21,500 | $111,500 | |
| 4 | $111,500 | $38,000 | -$21,500 | $128,000 | |
| 5 | $128,000 | $38,000 | -$21,500 | $144,500 | |
| 6, trough | $144,500 | $38,000 | -$21,500 | -$160,000 | $1,000 |
| 7 | $1,000 | $38,000 | -$21,500 | $17,500 | |
| 8 | $17,500 | $38,000 | -$21,500 | $34,000 | |
| 9 | $34,000 | $38,000 | -$21,500 | $50,500 | |
| 10 | $50,500 | $38,000 | -$21,500 | $67,000 | |
| 11 | $67,000 | $38,000 | -$21,500 | $83,500 | |
| 12 | $83,500 | $38,000 | -$21,500 | $100,000 | |
| 13 | $100,000 | $38,000 | -$21,500 | $116,500 |
SAMPLE NUMBERS, not a store's figures. Inventory purchase order of $160,000 in week 6.
Read the sample this way: the store adds $16,500 a week and holds $144,500 after week 5, which looks comfortable. The $160,000 purchase order takes week 6 down to $1,000. One late payout or one unplanned bill that week and the account goes negative. The fixes are timing: split the order, ask for later terms, or build the balance before it lands.
Roll it forward every Monday
- Replace last week's forecast with what actually landed and left.
- Add a new week 13 at the end.
- Re-check the receipts line against the latest payouts, and move any bill whose date changed.
- Find the trough again, and act on it while it is still weeks away.
If your books sync from Shopify, what a ledger sync settles and what it leaves open is on QuickBooks and Shopify after sync. What ProfitRoot costs is on pricing.
Common questions
Why forecast from payouts and not from sales?
Because payouts are the cash that reaches your bank. A payout arrives after the sale, net of processing fees and any refunds or disputes taken from the balance, so sales overstate what lands and say nothing about when.
Why 13 weeks?
Thirteen weeks is one quarter: long enough to see a large bill such as an inventory order coming, short enough that weekly payouts and bills can be estimated from recent history. It is a convention, not a rule.
Where do I find my payout history in Shopify?
Under Finance, then Payouts, where each payout's transactions can be viewed and exported. Shopify says its Shopify Payments activity report is not a statement of revenue for accounting purposes; for this forecast that is fine, because the forecast is about cash, not revenue.
What is the trough week?
The week with the lowest closing balance. In the sample on this page it is week 6, at $1,000, the week a $160,000 purchase order is paid.
How often should I update it?
Every week. Replace the week just closed with what actually landed and left, add a new week 13 at the end, and look again for the trough.
What this does not tell you
The forecast covers cash in and out of the account payouts land in. Payments through other processors, loans, card balances and owner draws belong in it too if they move cash in those weeks.
The method on this page is our reasoning, not a Shopify statement. The worked example uses SAMPLE NUMBERS, not a store's figures, with flat weekly payouts and outflows to keep it readable.
Install ProfitRoot and see these steps on your own orders.
Install free from the Shopify App StoreOrders synced from a connected Shopify store are transmitted to and stored on our servers so they can be recomputed on later visits.
Sources last checked 2026-11-13.